Harry Wang, director of health and mobile product research at Dallas-based Parks Associates, was among the few to forecast cell phone sales growth. Wang expects sales in the United States to hit between 134 and 136 million units next year, up from between 130 million and 132 million in ’08. That, he says, will be driven by the upgrade cycle.

Some 85% of consumers upgrade their phones after the two-year contract expires, he says. “That’s where the demand will be coming from.”

Indeed, in an October study by market research firm Parks, some 15% of consumers said they planned to buy a mobile phone during the holiday season. That put mobile phones among the top four of various types of electronics, such as high-definition televisions, laptop computers and game consoles.

From the article, "Cell phone sales may dial downward in ’09" by Jeff Bounds

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