Brett Sappington, senior director of research at Parks Associates, agrees that Disney+ has the best shot at being wildly successful, and that securing fewer than 23 million Disney+ subs globally by 2023 would vastly "undershoot" expectations.
But Sappington also stressed that Disney is taking on some additional risk with a direct-to-consumer offering, as the company won't get the same guarantees that Disney locks down when licensing its content to others. "That's really a big bet for Disney," he said.  

From the article "Disney+ Could Blow Away Subscriber Forecasts" by Jeff Baumgartner.

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