Set-top Boxes: Analysis and Forecasts

As competition among television service providers increases, the expanded role of the set-top box as a receiver, aggregator, storage device, and sharing platform will grow considerably. This report examines the next generation of set-top box platforms, examining use cases from DVRs to home networking media servers. It analyzes the market for set-top box components and solutions, from drives to software, as well as the role of industry and open standards.

“The platform most closely linked to the television remains the critical component to unlocking greater customer loyalty and revenue,” said Kurt Scherf, vice president and principal analyst with Parks Associates. “The set-top box landscape is shifting dramatically as service providers seek ever-greater functionality at lower price points to defend against encroaching competition.”

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The Bottom Line

1.0 Notes on Methodology
   1.1 Consumer Data
   1.2 Definitions
   1.3 Scope of Report

2.0 Set-top Box Market Overview
   2.1 Types of Boxes
      2.1.1 Cable Set-top Box
      2.1.2 Satellite Set-top Box
      2.1.3 Digital Terrestrial Set-top Box
      2.1.4 IP Set-top Box
   2.2 The Role of Service Providers in Set-top Distribution
      2.2.1 Distribution Models: Lease versus Buy
      2.2.2 Rift over CableCARD
   2.3 Set-top Boxes and Whole-Home Entertainment
      2.3.1 Home Networking Support
      2.3.2 Set-top Boxes as Media Servers
   2.4 Advanced Features of Digital Set-top Boxes
      2.4.1 PVR/DVR
      2.4.2 Whole-house DVR
      2.4.3 Video–on-Demand
      2.4.4 HDTV
      2.4.5 Electronic Programming Guide (EPG)
      2.4.6 Interactive TV Services
      2.4.7 Communications
      2.4.8 Connectivity with PCs and Portable Devices

3.0 Technology Review and Bill of Material Analysis
   3.1 Set-top Silicon
   3.2 Software Components
   3.3 Content Protection Technologies and Standards
   3.4 Technology Standards for the Set-top Box
   3.5 Migration to IP: Means and Destination
   3.6 Bill of Material (BOM) Analysis

4.0 Consumer Perspectives on Set-top Box Features
   4.1 Digital TV Service Subscriber Growth
   4.2 Interest in Advanced Digital TV Services

5.0 Set-top Box Market Key Issues
   5.1 The Hybrid Set-top Box: Adoption and Analysis
   5.2 One Box or Many? The RG and the Set-top Box
   5.3 Is the Home Computer a Threat to Set-top Box?
   5.4 Over-the-top Video Services and Their Impact on the Set-top Box Market

6.0 Industry Snapshot
   6.1 Service Provider Market
   6.2 Market Positioning and Competition Strategies of Set-top Box Makers
   6.3 The Set-top Box’s Evolution Path

7.0 Market Forecasts and Implications
   7.1 Forecast Methodologies and Assumptions
   7.2 Digital Set-top Box Forecast
   7.3 Market Implications and Recommendations

Resource Book

1.0 Digital TV Households and TV Service Usage

2.0 Digital TV Intenders: Demographics and Service Preferences

3.0 Set-top Box as a Converged Platform: Consumer Perspectives

4.0 Set-top Box Industry Standards
   4.1 CableLabs Standards
   4.2 DSL Forum Standards and Initiatives
   4.3 Digital Video Broadcasting Project (DVB Standards)
   4.4 Japanese DTV Standards
   4.5 Chinese DTV Standards
   4.6 High-Definition Audio-Video Network Alliance (HANA)
   4.7 Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA)

5.0 Company Profiles
   5.1 Set-top Box Manufacturers
      5.1.1 2Wire
      5.1.2 Advanced Digital Broadcast, Inc.
      5.1.3 Amino Communications
      5.1.4 Cisco (Scientific-Atlanta)
      5.1.5 HUMAX
      5.1.6 Motorola
      5.1.7 Pace Micro
      5.1.8 Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV
      5.1.9 Softier
      5.1.10 Samsung
      5.1.11 Thomson S.A.
   5.2 Silicon Manufacturers, Software and Middleware Providers
      5.2.1 ANT Software
      5.2.2 Broadcom
      5.2.3 Digeo
      5.2.4 Irdeto
      5.2.5 Microsoft
      5.2.6 Myrio
      5.2.7 Nagravision SA
      5.2.8 NDS Group PLC.
      5.2.9 OpenTV
      5.2.10 ST Microelectronics
      5.2.11 Texas Instruments

The Bottom Line

Major Satellite Set-top Box Suppliers and Their Customers
Major IP Set-top Box Vendors and Their Customers
Major Next-generation Home Networking Solutions
DVR Helps DirecTV Achieve Higher ARPU, Lower Churn, and Higher Return
Scientific-Atlanta’s DVR Set-top Boxes as a Percentage of Total Shipments
Variations of Existing Multi-room DVR Solutions
Examples of Interactive TV Services
Set-top Box Software Market is Highly Competitive
IPTV Middleware Deployment
Leading Content Protection Technology Vendors
Industry Standards Related to TV Set-top Boxes
Estimated Component Costs of TV Set-top Boxes
Digital Cable TV Intenders: Which TV Service Are They Using Now?
Satellite TV Intenders: Which TV Service Are They Using Now?
DTT Intenders: Which TV Service Are They Using Now?
Advanced TV Features: Global Consumer Tiered Interest Structure
Hybrid Set-top Box Deployment Update
Over-the-top Video Services from Aggregators and Content Owners
Satellite TV Operators’ Video Strategies
Set-top Box Makers’ Market Positioning
Set-top Box Evolution Path: 2002-2012
Set-top Box Shipment Forecast Broken Down by Box Types
Forecast of Annual Revenues for Set-top Boxes

Resource Book

Penetration of TV Services in Online Population by Country
Penetration of TV Services in Online Population by Country
Adoption of Advanced TV Services in the U.S.: By TV Platform
DVR Ownership in the U.S.: By TV Service Types
VOD Service: Average Monthly Price Consumers Are Willing to Pay
Amount High Intenders Are Willing to Pay for Advanced Programming Services
Amount Consumers are Willing to Pay for Value-added Services
Consumers’ Interest in Value-added DTV Services: 12-Country Comparison-Series 1
Consumers’ Interest in Value-added DTV Services: 12-Country Comparison-Series 2
U.S. Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
U.S. Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Canadian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Canadian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
U.K. Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
U.K. Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
German Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
German Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
French Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
French Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Italian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Italian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Spanish Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Spanish Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Japanese Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Japanese Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Australian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Australian Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
S. Korean Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
S. Korean Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Taiwanese Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-1
Taiwanese Consumers’ Interest in Value-added TV Service: By TV Platform-2
Digital Cable TV Intenders: Their Current TV Services
Satellite TV Intenders: Their Current TV Services
Digital Terrestrial TV Intenders: Their Current TV Services
U.S. DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
U.K. DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
German DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
Canadian DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
French DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
Spanish DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
Japanese DTV Service Intenders’ Gender
U.S. DTV Service Intenders’ Age
U.K. DTV Service Intenders’ Age
German DTV Service Intenders’ Age
Canadian DTV Service Intenders’ Age
French DTV Service Intenders’ Age
Spanish DTV Service Intenders’ Age
Japanese DTV Service Intenders’ Age
Digital Cable Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 1
Digital Cable Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 2
Satellite TV Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 1
Digital Cable Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 2
Digital Terrestrial TV Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 1
Digital Terrestrial TV Intenders’ Service Preferences-Series 2
U.S. DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Canadian DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
French DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Italian DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
German DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Spanish DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Japanese DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Australian DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
S. Korean DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
Taiwanese DTV Intenders’ Interest in Other Service Platforms
U.S. TV Segments Based on Frequency of TV Watching
U.S. TV Watching Habits and Choice of TV Services
Frequency of Organizing Photos on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Viewing Photos on TV-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Playing DVD on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Watching Live TV on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Recording Live TV on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Playing PC Video on TV-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Downloading Music to PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Playing Music on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Playing Online Game on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Using VoIP Calls on PC-U.S. TV Segments
Frequency of Video Charting Using Webcam on PC-U.S. TV Segments
U.K. Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
German Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
French Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
Canadian Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
Spanish Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
Japanese Heavy TV Watchers’ PC-Based Entertainment Activities
CableLabs Standards
xDSL Access Technologies
DVB Standards
HANA’s Promoters, Contributors, and Adopters

Publish Date: 4Q 2006

Pages: 170

Authored By:
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Harry Wang - Senior Director of Research

Executive Editor: Tricia Parks
Published by Parks Associates

© November 2006 Parks Associates
Dallas, Texas 75230

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in the United States of America. 

Disclaimer
Parks Associates has made every reasonable effort to ensure that all information in this report is correct.  We assume no responsibility for any inadvertent errors.
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